Buccaneers Tells Board · 2025

Pre-snap tells — groupings that predict the Buccaneers's play at rates that differ from the rest of the NFL. Four categories, every delta is vs. the league in the same situation.

Every group with n≥20 for the team. Confidence: 'strong' = team's Wilson 95% interval excludes the rest-of-NFL rate; 'moderate' = two-proportion test p<0.10; 'directional' = neither but well-sampled. n<30 flagged low-sample. All deltas are vs the rest of the NFL in the same group.

#	Trigger	Prediction	vs NFL	Plays	Confidence	Rate (95% CI)
1	Under Center · run direction Formation	Runs left 47.9%	+ 11.6 pp	280	strong	47.9% [42.1–53.7] NFL 36.3% · left-side run rate
2	12 personnel · 1st down Personnel	Run 73.1%	+ 12.8 pp	134	strong	73.1% [65.1–79.9] NFL 60.3% · run rate
3	12 personnel · 1st down (62% of its snaps) Situational	Run 73.1%	+ 12.8 pp	134	strong	73.1% [65.1–79.9] NFL 60.3% · run rate
4	Pre-snap motion · 1st down Motion	Run 59.9%	+ 5.4 pp	304	moderate	59.9% [54.3–65.2] NFL 54.5% · run rate
5	11 personnel · 2nd & long (7+) Personnel	Pass 78%	-6.3 pp	182	moderate	22% [16.6–28.5] NFL 28.3% · run rate
6	13 personnel · 1st down Personnel	Run 81.8%	+ 17.6 pp	22 LOW n	moderate	81.8% [61.5–92.7] NFL 64.2% · run rate
7	13 personnel · 1st down (60% of its snaps) Situational	Run 81.8%	+ 17.6 pp	22 LOW n	moderate	81.8% [61.5–92.7] NFL 64.2% · run rate
8	Pistol · run direction Formation	Runs middle 33.3%	+ 13.4 pp	30	moderate	33.3% [19.2–51.2] NFL 19.9% · middle-side run rate
9	12 personnel · 2nd & medium (4–6) Personnel	Run 70.4%	+ 14.2 pp	27 LOW n	directional	70.4% [51.5–84.1] NFL 56.2% · run rate
10	11 personnel · 2nd & short (≤3) Personnel	Pass 53.6%	-13.3 pp	28 LOW n	directional	46.4% [29.5–64.2] NFL 59.7% · run rate
11	Shotgun · run direction Formation	Runs left 39.3%	+ 5.3 pp	150	directional	39.3% [31.9–47.3] NFL 34% · left-side run rate
12	11 personnel · 3rd & medium (3–6) Personnel	Pass 74.6%	+ 8 pp	59	directional	25.4% [16.1–37.8] NFL 17.4% · run rate
13	11 personnel · 2nd & medium (4–6) Personnel	Pass 63.2%	-9.5 pp	38	directional	36.8% [23.4–52.7] NFL 46.3% · run rate
14	Pre-snap motion · 2nd & long (7+) Motion	Pass 72.6%	-4.5 pp	135	directional	27.4% [20.6–35.5] NFL 31.9% · run rate
15	11 personnel · 3rd & long (7+) Personnel	Pass 83.2%	+ 4 pp	107	directional	16.8% [10.9–25] NFL 12.8% · run rate
16	Pre-snap motion · 2nd & short (≤3) Motion	Run 63.3%	-7 pp	30	directional	63.3% [45.5–78.1] NFL 70.3% · run rate
17	Pre-snap motion · 3rd & short (≤2) Motion	Run 70%	+ 6.9 pp	30	directional	70% [52.1–83.3] NFL 63.1% · run rate
18	11 personnel · 1st down Personnel	Pass 54.7%	-2 pp	278	directional	45.3% [39.6–51.2] NFL 47.3% · run rate
19	11 personnel · 3rd & short (≤2) Personnel	Run 64.3%	+ 5.2 pp	28 LOW n	directional	64.3% [45.8–79.3] NFL 59.1% · run rate
20	Pre-snap motion · 3rd & medium (3–6) Motion	Pass 86.1%	-3.5 pp	36	directional	13.9% [6.1–28.7] NFL 17.4% · run rate
21	Pre-snap motion · 2nd & medium (4–6) Motion	Run 50%	-2.8 pp	50	directional	50% [36.6–63.4] NFL 52.8% · run rate
22	12 personnel · 2nd & short (≤3) Personnel	Run 80%	+ 4.1 pp	20 LOW n	directional	80% [58.4–91.9] NFL 75.9% · run rate
23	21 personnel · 1st down Personnel	Run 58.3%	+ 2 pp	24 LOW n	directional	58.3% [38.8–75.5] NFL 56.3% · run rate
24	21 personnel · 1st down (49% of its snaps) Situational	Run 58.3%	+ 2 pp	24 LOW n	directional	58.3% [38.8–75.5] NFL 56.3% · run rate
25	12 personnel · 2nd & long (7+) Personnel	Pass 60%	+ 1.9 pp	20 LOW n	directional	40% [21.9–61.3] NFL 38.1% · run rate
26	Pre-snap motion · 3rd & long (7+) Motion	Pass 86.9%	-0.1 pp	61	directional	13.1% [6.8–23.8] NFL 13.2% · run rate