Buccaneers Threat Board · 2026

@BucsJuice

Who drives the Buccaneers's tendencies, and how do they match up against Tampa Bay this week. Through week 1 · model threat-board-v2.

Every player card shows four separate numbers, never blended into one: Quality (performance so far), Projected Role (expected centrality in the next matchup), Matchup (how this specific matchup compares to the player's normal environment), and Projected Impact (raw expected value = projected opportunities * expected value per opportunity vs TB, then normalized within position — NOT a weighted average of the other three). QB/RB/WR/TE get full player grades; Edge/IDL get Quality+Role, with a team-environment Matchup/Impact fallback capped at confidence B (PFR pass-rush data is season-cumulative, not per-game, and has no individual alignment/assignment data). OL/LB/Secondary are graded only at the team level — Personnel Quality is null there; Unit Performance is context-adjusted against a grouped league baseline for the situations that unit actually faced. No individual OL, LB, cornerback, or safety responsibility grade is ever invented from ambiguous play-by-play. Full methodology →

RB grades on this page include licensed Fantasy Points charting data (full season) — look for the FPDS Rush Quality panel on running back cards below.

What do these grades mean?

Quality and Matchup are both 0–100 standardized grades (50 = average performer / neutral matchup, each 15 points ≈ one standard deviation) — but they answer different questions, so each has its own label. Threat is not a standardized grade at all: it's a percentile — where this player's projected weekly impact ranks among eligible positional peers, including projected opportunity. A Threat of 92 means roughly top-8%-level among relevant weekly peers; it is not "8 points below elite."

Quality — "how good has he been?"

GradeMeaning
90-100Elite
80-89Very Good
65-79Above Average
45-64Average Range
30-44Below Average
0-29Poor

Matchup vs Tampa Bay — "better or worse than average?"

GradeMeaning
80-100Very Favorable
65-79Favorable
45-64Neutral / Mixed
30-44Unfavorable
0-29Very Unfavorable

Threat — "how worried should TB be this week?"

PercentileMeaning
90-100Elite Weekly Threat
80-89High Threat
65-79Above-Average Threat
40-64Moderate Threat
20-39Low Threat
0-19Minimal Projected Threat

Projected Role is shown in football units (carries, targets, dropbacks, snaps) — not another 0–100 grade — because "how much will he play" is more useful as a number of touches than a standardized score. Confidence (A/B/C) is tracked separately for Quality, Matchup, and Threat, since the evidence behind each can differ even for the same player.

Top Threats

Who can hurt Tampa Bay — ranked by Threat.

  1. Baker Mayfield QB 100 C
  2. Kenny Gainwell RB 100 C
  3. Bucky Irving RB 100 C
  4. Emeka Egbuka WR 100 C
  5. Chris Godwin Jr. WR 100 C

Attack Points

Where Tampa Bay can attack — unit weaknesses only, never an individual OL/LB/DB blame grade.

  1. Run defense vs Tampa Bay's run offense 50
Unit Personnel Performance Matchup vs TB Confidence
Quarterback 51 38 50 C
Running Back 49 45 50 C
Wide Receiver 51 61 50 C
Tight End 47 45 50 C
Linebackers — 43 46 C
Secondary — 50 51 C

Quarterback

Scope: passing personnel and team passing outcomes

Baker Mayfield · QB Threat 100 Elite Weekly Threat C

Scope: passing and sack value (excludes rushing value)

Quality 51 Average Range C rank 14/32
Matchup vs Tampa Bay 50 Neutral / Mixed C man zone interaction
Projected Role 32.9 dropbacks C 98% of QB opportunities
Threat 100 Elite Weekly Threat C #20 this week
  • EPA/dropback -0.25
  • CPOE 14.0
  • Success rate 47%
  • 100% of the team's dropbacks
  • Tampa Bay's coverage-shell data is unavailable this season.
  • Small sample (n=32) — treat this grade as a loose estimate, not a settled read.

Watch matchup plays

  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 14:23 | 3rd-1 own 37 17 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 12:08 | 2nd-14 opp 36 10 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 14:30 | 2nd-1 own 37 0 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 09:19 | 3rd-5 opp 16 0 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 06:58 | 2nd-10 own 32 1 yds

Running Back

Scope: rushing and receiving personnel and team rushing outcomes

Kenny Gainwell · RB Threat 100 Elite Weekly Threat C

Scope: rushing and receiving (excludes pass protection)

Quality 40 Below Average C rank —/0
Matchup vs Tampa Bay 50 Neutral / Mixed C rushing and receiving touch weighted
Projected Role 6.6 carries, 4.8 targets C 50% of RB opportunities
Threat 100 Elite Weekly Threat C #278 this week
  • EPA/rush -0.22
  • Success rate 20%
  • Rush yds over expected/att —
  • 25% of the team's carries
  • 20% success rate
  • Tampa Bay's front seven allows +0.00 rush EPA over expected this season.
  • Small sample (n=5) — treat this grade as a loose estimate, not a settled read.

FPDS Rush Quality 68 B

  • Efficiency67
  • Creation59
  • Explosiveness61
  • Ball security45
  • Zone production 72 (60.5% usage)
  • Man/Gap production 52 (34.2% usage)
  • Other/unclassified concept 5.3% usage — not charted as zone or man/gap
  • Run-lane environment (YBCO/att) 2.40 (79th pctl)
  • Goal-line role (i5%) 31%

Watch matchup plays

  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 01:03 | 2nd-6 own 38 7 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 10:37 | 1st-10 opp 21 2 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q3 07:16 | 2nd-3 opp 35 2 yds
Bucky Irving · RB Threat 100 Elite Weekly Threat C

Scope: rushing and receiving (excludes pass protection)

Quality 56 Average Range C rank —/0
Matchup vs Tampa Bay 50 Neutral / Mixed C rushing and receiving touch weighted
Projected Role 8.4 carries, 2.8 targets C 50% of RB opportunities
Threat 100 Elite Weekly Threat C #121 this week
  • EPA/rush 0.44
  • Success rate 63%
  • Rush yds over expected/att —
  • 40% of the team's carries
  • 62% success rate
  • Tampa Bay's front seven allows +0.00 rush EPA over expected this season.
  • Small sample (n=8) — treat this grade as a loose estimate, not a settled read.

FPDS Rush Quality 22 A

  • Efficiency30
  • Creation31
  • Explosiveness32
  • Ball security53
  • Zone production 45 (43.4% usage)
  • Man/Gap production 15 (54.3% usage)
  • Other/unclassified concept 2.3% usage — not charted as zone or man/gap
  • Run-lane environment (YBCO/att) 1.62 (34th pctl)
  • Goal-line role (i5%) 0%

Watch matchup plays

  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 14:56 | 1st-10 own 28 9 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 13:31 | 1st-5 opp 41 9 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 09:57 | 2nd-8 opp 19 3 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 07:38 | 1st-10 own 32 0 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q4 13:16 | 2nd-6 own 31 8 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q3 09:57 | 1st-10 own 29 1 yds

Wide Receiver

Scope: receiving personnel and team receiving outcomes

Emeka Egbuka · WR Threat 100 Elite Weekly Threat C

Scope: receiving only (excludes blocking)

Quality 56 Average Range C rank —/0
Matchup vs Tampa Bay 50 Neutral / Mixed C target based coverage matchup
Projected Role 7.0 targets C 21% of WR opportunities
Threat 100 Elite Weekly Threat C #56 this week
  • EPA/target 0.79
  • Success rate 83%
  • Avg separation 2.40
  • YAC over expected 1.2
  • 19% target share
  • Tampa Bay's coverage-shell data is unavailable this season.
  • Small sample (n=6) — treat this grade as a loose estimate, not a settled read.

Watch matchup plays

  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 14:23 | 3rd-1 own 37 17 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 12:08 | 2nd-14 opp 36 10 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 14:30 | 2nd-1 own 37 0 yds
Chris Godwin Jr. · WR Threat 100 Elite Weekly Threat C

Scope: receiving only (excludes blocking)

Quality 45 Below Average C rank —/0
Matchup vs Tampa Bay 50 Neutral / Mixed C target based coverage matchup
Projected Role 3.0 targets C 9% of WR opportunities
Threat 100 Elite Weekly Threat C #66 this week
  • EPA/target 0.72
  • Success rate 50%
  • Avg separation —
  • YAC over expected —
  • 12% target share
  • Tampa Bay's coverage-shell data is unavailable this season.
  • Small sample (n=4) — treat this grade as a loose estimate, not a settled read.

Watch matchup plays

  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 11:22 | 3rd-4 opp 26 5 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q2 03:56 | 3rd-3 own 32 30 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 01:42 | 1st-10 own 34 4 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q4 12:02 | 2nd-5 own 44 1 yds
Tez Johnson · WR LOW PROJECTED ROLE Threat 100 Elite Weekly Threat C

Scope: receiving only (excludes blocking)

Quality 42 Below Average C rank —/0
Matchup vs Tampa Bay 50 Neutral / Mixed C target based coverage matchup
Projected Role 2.4 targets C 7% of WR opportunities
Threat 100 Elite Weekly Threat C #147 this week · below eligibility floor
  • EPA/target -0.60
  • Success rate 0%
  • Avg separation —
  • YAC over expected —
  • 3% target share
  • Tampa Bay's coverage-shell data is unavailable this season.
  • Small sample (n=1) — treat this grade as a loose estimate, not a settled read.

Watch matchup plays

  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q4 03:31 | 1st-9 opp 9 0 yds
Ted Hurst III · WR LOW PROJECTED ROLE Threat 100 Elite Weekly Threat C

Scope: receiving only (excludes blocking)

Quality 50 Average Range C rank —/0
Matchup vs Tampa Bay 50 Neutral / Mixed C target based coverage matchup
Projected Role 2.3 targets C 7% of WR opportunities
Threat 100 Elite Weekly Threat C #190 this week · below eligibility floor
  • EPA/target 0.77
  • Success rate 100%
  • Avg separation —
  • YAC over expected —
  • 9% target share
  • Tampa Bay's coverage-shell data is unavailable this season.
  • Small sample (n=3) — treat this grade as a loose estimate, not a settled read.

Watch matchup plays

  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q4 05:11 | 1st-15 own 44 16 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q4 04:43 | 1st-10 opp 40 8 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q4 04:23 | 2nd-2 opp 32 12 yds

Tight End

Scope: receiving personnel and team receiving outcomes

Cade Otton · TE Threat 100 Elite Weekly Threat C

Scope: receiving only (excludes blocking, pass protection)

Quality 47 Average Range C rank —/0
Matchup vs Tampa Bay 50 Neutral / Mixed C target based coverage matchup
Projected Role 4.7 targets C 14% of TE opportunities
Threat 100 Elite Weekly Threat C #51 this week
  • EPA/target -0.02
  • Success rate 40%
  • Avg separation 4.06
  • YAC over expected -0.2
  • 16% target share
  • Tampa Bay's coverage-shell data is unavailable this season.
  • Small sample (n=5) — treat this grade as a loose estimate, not a settled read.

Watch matchup plays

  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 00:28 | 1st-10 own 45 13 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q2 02:00 | 1st-10 opp 20 10 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q1 05:41 | 2nd-14 own 25 0 yds
  • 2026_W01_TB@CIN | Q3 04:34 | 2nd-6 opp 24 0 yds

Linebackers

Scope: middle of field and front seven outcomes — graded at the unit level only; no individual grades exist for this position group.

Secondary

Scope: team coverage outcomes — graded at the unit level only; no individual grades exist for this position group.